In the aftermath of a closer-than-anticipated general election, pollsters have received no shortage of criticism for "missing" the election's outcome. This criticism is well warranted. The day before the election, our Lunchtime Politics polling average had Joe Biden leading +7 points, higher than the +3...
Many recent polls make questionable assumptions about the age of the electorate, often over-representing older voters. The result: polls are likely helping Trump’s performance in the polls and making the race tighter than it may actually be. ...
Last night’s debate presented two competing visions for the Democratic Party––one is a pragmatic center-left vision focused on beating Donald Trump. The other is a big-ideas progressive left vision focused on changing the country. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren championed the big-ideas vision, while most of the other candidates advocated, at least in part,...
Candidates who helped themselves to some degree last night: Kamala Harris: She was the only candidate who clearly helped herself. Post-debate punditry was gushing in praise of her. She had the energy and the most applause lines. Her prosecutorial experience showed through as she pressed her...
Five comments about last night’s Democratic debate: The energy was clearly on the progressive-populist-left side of the political spectrum. There was little interest in bipartisanship or centrist policies. In fact, candidates who tried to deliver more moderate messages (especially Delaney and, to a lesser extent, O’Rourke...