Many recent polls make questionable assumptions about the age of the electorate, often over-representing older voters. The result: polls are likely helping Trump’s performance in the polls and making the race tighter than it may actually be. ...
ICYMI: Check out Dr. Ron Faucheux's conversation with Susan Eisenhower of the Eisenhower Institute at Gettysburg College discussing our nation’s increased polarization, the 2020 election, and the uncertain impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on voting ...
Will Donald Trump be reelected? That question demands one of those complicated “on the one hand” and “on the other hand” answers that most people hate and pundits love. It’s why Harry Truman said he preferred one-armed economists — so the...
ICYMI: Check out Ron Faucheux's thoughts on who will be Joe Biden's running mate for the 2020 Presidential election. Who will be Joe Biden’s running mate? Given Biden’s age, voters will be tempted to view his vice-president as a future presid...
If anything comes out of the coronavirus crisis, it is the glaring need to tackle big, neglected issues. All five priorities are essential to our future. While none are perfect or easy to accomplish, combined, they can fix broken government, create j...
Politics is filled with truisms that aren’t true. Let’s look at some of them...“The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day" the Democratic presidential primary race show otherwise...“All politics are local" that hasn’t been the c...
Michael Bloomberg is not what Democrats want, but he may be what Democrats need. None of Bloomberg’s signature traits -- 77-years-old, former Republican, billionaire -- are on the presidential wish list of most Democrats. What they want is an appe...
About this time in every presidential nomination contest there is talk of a brokered convention. As if on cue, we’re hearing it again. The thought of such a convention races the hearts of political junkies everywhere. It conjures the image of ...
Electability is Joe Biden’s calling card. Without that perceived advantage, his viability as a presidential candidate crumbles...While electability can be a powerful force––it helped George W. Bush, John Kerry and John McCain win nominations–...
Modern communication campaigns require customizing communication strategies for different target audiences. Elite audiences, professionals engaged in key decision making or with high awareness of industry developments are important target audiences f...
Before launching a marketing, public relations, or public affairs campaign, conducting an analysis of news media and social can provide valuable insights that help make the campaign more effective. We call this review a media audit. What is a Med...
69% of voters agree with the statement “The political establishment in the United States does not have my best interests in mind.” By party 62% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 78% of independents agree that the establishment does not have their best interests in...
Voters that plan to vote early in-person break for Trump by 2 points. Election day in-person voters break heavily for Trump by 20 points. Voters that plan to vote by mail favor Biden by a whopping 39 points. If mail ballots are counted last, it could mean Trump’s strength will max out...
Based on these two polls, there was a Trump bounce, and a tightening of Biden’s trial heat margin. Of course, we don’t know how long this bounce will last or whether other polls will show something different...
Check out what voters think about Joe Biden in today's newsletter! Data is from polls taken between Sunday and Tuesday of this week...
Today's newsletter takes a look at public confidence in mail-in voting. When asked about President Trump's interference, only 36% of voters are very or somewhat confident he will not interfere, versus 50% that are not that confident or not confident at all. ...
Biden continues to carry key states that Trump won in 2016, but his margins are often small. This polling has Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina within 3 points. Most importantly, these polls were taken right after the Democratic “convention,” when Biden should have been...
Today's polling shows Biden leading Florida and North Carolina, two swing states that Trump carried last time, as well as his home state of Delaware. Hillary Clinton carried Delaware by 11 points in 2016...
Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters plan on watching at least some of the Republican "convention." They overwhelmingly want to hear a positive message about their candidate and what a new term would look like. At the convention, 85% of Republican voters would prefer to hear...
An Economist poll shows an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans. 54% of Biden’s voters vs. 60% of Trump’s voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting in this year’s presidential election than they were in the last election. We will have to see whether the Democratic...
Voters give their local government higher ratings than their state government or the federal government, but they are all still net negative. Looking specifically into the local level, 42% of Biden voters and 44% of Trump voters rate their local government’s handling of the...